基于小波分解的超短期风速混合模型组合预测

基于小波分解的超短期风速混合模型组合预测
摘要:针对目前超短期风速间接预测方法在各频率序列均采用同一模型进行预测所带来的问题，提出了一种基于小波分解的超短期风速混合模型组合预测方法。基于自回归差分移动平均模型，反向传播(back propagation, BP)神经网络与支持向量机三种方法，针对小波分解后所得到的各频率序列特点，选取合适的方法并建立相应的模型对其进行预测，最后重构得到超短期风速预测结果。该方法可从根本上考虑实测风速序列分解后所得各频率序列间的差异性和可预测性，进而提高预测精度。所提方法在不同预测时长下均具有较高的预测精度。以平均绝对误差为预测精度评价指标时，与持续法相比，预测精度可提高64.2%(1 h预测时长)、61.4%(4 h预测时长)；与传统单一模型组合预测方法中预测误差最低方法相比，预测精度可提高7.2%(1 h预测时长)、5.7%(4 h预测时长)。

Abstract：Aiming at the problems caused by the current indirect methods for ultra-short-term wind speed prediction which used the same model for each frequency sequence, this paper proposed a combined ultra-short-term wind speed prediction method using a hybrid model based on wavelet decomposition. The proposed method is based on three basic methods, which are autoregressive differential moving average model, back propagation (BP) neural network and support vector machine. The appropriate method is selected and the corresponding model is created according to the characteristics of each frequency sequence after wavelet decomposition, then the results of ultra-short-term wind speed prediction can be obtained through wavelet reconstruction. The proposed method can consider the difference and predictability among each frequency sequence fundamentally, therefore the prediction accuracy can be improved. The proposed method has higher prediction accuracy under different time horizons. When mean absolute error is used as the evaluation index, the prediction accuracy of the proposed method can be improved by 64.2% and 61.4% under 1 h and 4 h time horizons respectively compared with the persistence method, 7.2% and 5.7% under 1 h and 4 h time horizons respectively compared with the minimum prediction error method in traditional single model combination prediction method.

标题：基于小波分解的超短期风速混合模型组合预测
title:Combination Prediction Method of Ultra-Short-Term Wind Speed by Using A Hybrid Model Based on Wavelet Decomposition

作者：郑若楠
authors:ZHENG Ruonan

关键词：超短期风速预测,混合模型,组合预测,小波分解,间接预测,
keywords:ultra-short-term wind speed prediction,hybrid model,combination prediction,wavelet decomposition,indirect prediction,

发表日期：2019-01-25

2025-1-21 20:07 上传 基于小波分解的超短期风速混合模型组合预测.pdf

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