碳价与电力公司股价间风险溢出效应及影响因素研究
摘要:研究我国不同区域碳市场价格与电力上市公司股票价格之间的风险溢出效应，对加强碳市场风险管理、推进电力公司节能减排具有重要意义。通过构建溢出指数，从时域和频域2个维度系统考察碳价与电力公司股价之间的静态和时变溢出关系，并进一步探究“碳－电”系统风险溢出的主要影响因素。研究发现：从时域看，碳市场价格属于风险净接收方，当碳市场和电力市场出台相关政策时总溢出指数会大幅上升，但溢出效应具有明显的区域差异；从频域看，碳价与电力公司股价间的风险溢出主要发生在短期(20天内)，上海和湖北碳市场受到的长期影响略高于北京和广东；从影响因素来看，火电发电量、全国供电煤耗量、可再生能源发电量和全国碳市场的上线交易，均对碳价与电力公司股价间的风险溢出效应具有正向影响，而经济的向好发展对二者间的风险溢出具有一定的抑制作用。
Abstract：The study of the risk spillover effects between the carbon market prices in different regions of China and the stock prices of listed power companies is essential for strengthening carbon market risk management and promoting energy conservation and emission reduction in power companies. This paper systematically investigates the static and time-varying spillover relationships between carbon prices and power company stock prices in both the time and frequency domains by constructing the spillover index. Further, it explores the main influencing factors of the risk spillover of the "carbon-power" system. The results show that: In the time domain, the carbon market price is a net risk recipient, and the total spillover index will increase significantly when the carbon market and the power market introduce relevant policies. However, the spillover effect has noticeable regional differences. Meanwhile, in the frequency domain, the risk spillover effects between the carbon prices and power company stock prices mainly occur in the short term (within 20 days), and the long-term impact of the carbon market in Shanghai and Hubei is slightly higher than that in Beijing and Guangdong. Finally, in terms of influencing factors, thermal power generation, national power supply coal consumption, renewable power generation, and the online trading of the national carbon market all positively impact the risk spillover effects between the carbon market prices and power company stock prices. In contrast, the positive development of the economy has an inhibiting impact on the risk spillover between the two.
标题：碳价与电力公司股价间风险溢出效应及影响因素研究
title:Risk Spillover Effect and Influencing Factors Between Carbon Price and Share Price of Power Companies
作者：王喜平,王恬恬
authors:WANG Xiping,WANG Tiantian
关键词：碳价,电力公司股价,溢出指数模型,频域,影响因素,
keywords:carbon price,stock price of power company,spillover index model,frequency domain,influencing factor,
发表日期：2023-11-17
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