碳交易试点政策对电力碳减排的影响效应
摘要:碳交易是促进碳减排的重要政策工具，研究碳交易政策对电力行业碳排放的影响机制对于促进电力行业绿色低碳发展及碳交易市场的完善具有重要意义。根据联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会(intergovernmental panel on climate change, IPCC)提出的基于排放因子的碳排放核算方法计算生产端电力行业碳排量；利用2005—2019年30个省市(西藏除外)面板数据，通过双重差分法(difference-in-differences, DID)评估碳交易试点政策对电力行业碳排放的政策效应，进一步分析碳减排的作用机制。结果显示：碳排放权交易政策对电力行业碳排放有明显的抑制效果，可有效减少试点地区8%的碳排放，并有明显的时间累计效应；政策效果主要是通过市场机制来实现的；发电结构、产业结构、总发电量是导致电力碳排放增加的主要因素，而城市化水平、经济发展水平促进了电力碳减排。根据以上结论，提出推进碳市场建设、在发展中寻求碳减排、调整产业结构和发电结构等政策建议。
Abstract：Carbon trading is an important policy tool to promote emission reduction, and it is important to study the mechanism that how the impact of carbon trading policy on carbon emissions in power industry promotes the green and low-carbon development of power industry and the improvement of the carbon trading market. This paper calculates the carbon emissions of power industry at the production side according to the carbon emission accounting method based on emission factors proposed by the intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC). Using panel data of 30 provinces and cities (except Tibet) from 2005—2019, the effect of pilot carbon trading policy on carbon emissions in power industry is assessed by the difference-in-differences (DID) method, and the effect mechanism of carbon emission reduction is further analysed. The results show that the carbon trading policy has an inhibitory effect, which is of great significance, on carbon emissions in power industry, which can effectively reduce carbon emissions in the pilot areas by 8%, and has a significant cumulative effect over time, and the effect of the policy is mainly realized through the market mechanism. The power generation structure, industrial structure and total power generation are the main factors leading to the increase of carbon emissions from electricity, while the level of urbanization and economic development promote the carbon emission reduction of electricity. Based on the above findings, policy recommendations are proposed to promote the construction of carbon market, seek carbon emission reduction in development, and adjust industrial structure and power generation structure.
标题：碳交易试点政策对电力碳减排的影响效应
title:Effect of Pilot Carbon Trading Policy on Carbon Emission Reduction of Electricity
作者：王喜平,王仕恒
authors:WANG Xiping,WANG Shiheng
关键词：碳市场,碳交易试点,电力碳排放,政策评估,
keywords:carbon markets,carbon trading pilot,electric power carbon emissions,policy evaluation,
发表日期：2023-07-26
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