基于正态分布的典型负荷日拟合方法
摘要:电网负荷曲线的预测，储能电站的选址与容量配置都需要选取合适的典型负荷日。综合考虑电网负荷数据，提出一种基于正态分布的典型负荷日拟合办法。将每天同一时刻的负荷所出现的频率作为其概率，由于不同天同一时刻的负荷值相差不多，可以将其近似认为服从正态分布，利用最大似然估计法拟合成正态分布曲线，并利用每个概率分布的期望作为该时刻的负荷值。将日负荷率与数据平均日负荷率之差的绝对值作为评价指标1，将选取的典型负荷日与数据所有负荷日相关系数绝对值的平均值作为评价指标2，利用电网负荷数据对上述典型负荷日拟合方法进行验证，结果显示，用该方法所拟合的典型负荷日更具有一般性。
Abstract：In order to predict the load curve of power grid, the location and capacity allocation of energy storage power station need to select the appropriate typical load day. Considering a large number of load data, a typical load day fitting method based on normal distribution is proposed. The frequency of the load at the same time every day is regarded as its probability. Because the load values at the same time in different days are not much different, it is approximately considered to obey the normal distribution. Then, the maximum likelihood estimation method is used to synthesize the normal distribution curve, and the expectation of each probability distribution is calculated as the load value at that time. The absolute value of the difference between the daily load rate and the average daily load rate of the data is taken as the evaluation index 1, and the average value of the absolute value of the selected typical load day and all the daily load correlation coefficients of the data is taken as the evaluation index 2. Finally, the load data of power grid is used to verify the above typical load day fitting method, the results show that the typical load day fitted by this method is more general.
标题：基于正态分布的典型负荷日拟合方法
title:Fitting Method of Typical Daily Load Based on Normal Distribution
作者：韩宏志,杨洋,郜宁,马勤勇,赵建平,袁铁江
authors:HAN Hongzhi,YANG Yang,GAO Ning,MA Qinyong,ZHAO Jianping,YUAN Tiejiang
关键词：典型负荷日,正态分布,拟合,最大似然估计法,相关系数,
keywords:typical load day,normal distribution,fitting,maximum likelihood estimation,correlation,
发表日期：2020-09-21
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