考虑电力经济相关性的全社会电量预测算法
摘要:在社会经济发展过程中，产业用电量与经济之间存在较强的相关性，而传统算法并未合理考虑两者的相关性特征，也没有从全社会的角度量化分析产业经济与电力之间的相关性，故传统的电量预测算法无法表征其经济特性，不适用于全社会产业电量的高效预测。基于电力－经济生产函数，提出了一种全社会电量预测算法。首先，本文将全社会用电量分为三个产业和居民用电。其次，通过电力－经济生产函数法量化三个产业产值与电量之间的关联性；利用专家分析法对三个产业的未来经济数据和居民用电进行预测；基于三个产业的电力－经济生产函数法和未来经济数据，利用生产函数法预测三个产业的未来电量，从而得到全社会未来用电量。最后，综合考虑三个产业的产业结构调整趋势和电力－经济生产函数的特征，提出产业经济和电力发展规划意见。以浙江省为例，预测2018—2020年的全社会用电量并基于其未来经济、电力发展趋势，提出9条产业经济、电力结构调整意见。通过案例发现，产值的改变都会相应改变产业用电量以及用电量增速，可以通过提高用电量增速来提高或者降低相应产业的比重，从而有效调整产业结构。基于电力－经济生产函数的全社会电量预测算法从宏观的角度分析电量和经济的相关性，从而可以更加全面地预测全社会用电量。
Abstract：In the process of social and economic development, there is a strong correlation between industrial electricity consumption and economy. However, the traditional algorithm does not consider this correlation, and is incapable of quantifying the relationship between societal electricity consumption and industrial output value. Therefore, the traditional electricity prediction algorithm can not characterize its economic characteristics, and is not suitable for efficient prediction of industrial electricity in the whole society. Based on the power-economic production function, this paper proposes a electricity consumption prediction algorithm for the whole society. Firstly, we divides the societal electricity into four level: three major industries and residential electricity. Then, we quantify the correlation between the output value of the three industries and the power supply through the power-economic production function. With the help of development tendency of three major industries economy and residential electricity capacity obtained by expert analysis, and the future electric quantity of the three industries forecasted by the production function method, the future societal electricity consumption can be calculated, based on the power-economic production function method and future economic data of the three industries. Finally, comprehensively considering the trend of industrial structure adjustment in three industries and the characteristics of power-economic production function, we proposes some opinions on the industrial economy and power development planning. Taking Zhejiang province as an example, we forecast its societal electricity consumption during 2018-2020 and propose 9 suggestions on industrial economy and power structure adjustment based on its future economic and power development trend. In the case, it is found that changes in output value will correspondingly change the industrial electricity consumption and electricity consumption growth. The proportion of the corresponding industries can be increased or reduced by increasing the growth rate of electricity consumption, so as to effectively adjust the industrial structure. The whole society electricity forecasting algorithm based on power-economic production function analyses the correlation between electricity and economy from a macro perspective, which can predict the whole social electricity consumption more comprehensively.
标题：考虑电力经济相关性的全社会电量预测算法
title:Algorithm of Societal Electricity Consumption Forecasting Based on Society-Electricity-Economy Production Function
作者：胡怡霜, 丁一
authors:HU Yishuang, DING Yi
关键词：用电量预测,电力经济相关性,生产函数,产业结构调整,
keywords:electric consumption forecasting,economic relevance,production function,adjustment of industrial structure,
发表日期：2018-12-30
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