Abstract：Human concerns about fossil energy depletion and environmental degradation have led to increased demand for clean and renewable energy. Photovoltaic (PV) and wind power, as low-carbon clean new power generation way, develop more and more quickly, but abandoned light and wind power problem in the new energy power generation industry is more serious. As a result of this situation, based on the probabilistic production simulation of the power system by expansive-form expression, this paper presents a method to evaluate the PV absorptive capacity and the risk of discarding light for photovoltaic power generation system. This method preserves timing characteristics of the load and the PV unit. Combining with loading rate in the probabilistic production simulation and forced outage rate, the method is used to determine the photoelectric consumer space at a certain time in the future, and then evaluate the risk of discarding light. Based on the analysis of typical operation data, the validity of the proposed model and method is verified.
标题：基于随机生产模拟的光电消纳能力评估
title:Evaluation of PV Absorptive Capacity Based on Probabilistic Production Simulation
作者：罗定,刘艳
authors:LUO Ding,LIU Yan
关键词：随机生产模拟,展开型表述,光伏发电,光电消纳空间,弃光风险度,
keywords:probabilistic production simulation,expansive-form expression,photovoltaic (PV),PV absorptive capacity,abandoned light risk,
