SpatialtemporalanalysisofmalariaandtheeffectofenvironmentalfactorsonitsincidenceinYongcheng,China,20062010.pdf
Background:In2003,Plasmodiumvivaxmalariahasre-emergedincentraleasternChinaincludingYongchengprefecture,HenanProvince,wherenocasehasbeenreportedforelevenyears.Ourgoalsweretodetectthespace-timedistributionpatternofmalariaandtodeterminesignificantenvironmentalvariablescontributingtomalariaincidenceinYongchengfrom2006to2010,thusprovidingscientificbasisforfurtheroptimizingcurrentmalariasurveillanceandcontrolprograms.Methods:Thisstudyexaminedthespatialandtemporalheterogeneitiesintheriskofmalariaandtheinfluencingfactorsonmalariaincidenceusinggeographicalinformationsystem(GIS)andtimeseriesanalysis.Univariateanalysiswasconductedtoestimatethecrudecorrelationsbetweenmalariaincidenceandenvironmentalvariables,suchasmosquitoabundanceandclimaticfactors.MultivariateanalysiswasimplementedtoconstructpredictivemodelstoexploretheprincipalenvironmentaldeterminantsonmalariaepidemicusingaGeneralizedEstimatingEquation(GEE)approach.Results:Annualmalariaincidenceattown-leveldecreasedfromthenorthtosouth,andmonthlyincidenceatprefecture-leveldemonstratedastrongseasonalpatternwithapeakfromJulytoNovember.Yearlymalariaincidencehadavisualspatialassociationwithyearlyaveragetemperature.Moreover,thebest-fittemporalmodel(model2)(QIC=16.934,P<0.001,R2=0.818)indicatedthatsignificantfactorscontributingtomalariaincidenceweremaximumtemperatureatonemonthlag,averagehumidityatonemonthlag,andmalariaincidenceofthepreviousmonth.Conclusions:Findingssupportedtheeffectsofenvironmentfactorsonmalariaincidenceandindicatedthatmalariacontroltargetsshouldvarywithintensityofmalariaincidence,withmorepublicresourceallocatedtocontrolthesourceofinfectionsinsteadoflargescaleAn.sinensiscontrolwhenmalariaincidencewasatalowlevel,whichwouldbenefitforoptimizingthemalariasurveillanceprojectinChinaandsomeothercountrieswithunstableorlowmalariatransmission.
作者：YanZhang Qi-YongLiu Rong-ShengLuan Xiao-BoLiu Guang-ChaoZhou[5]Jing-YiJiang[5]Hong-ShengLi[5]Zhi-FangLi
作者单位：StateKeyLaboratoryforInfectiousDiseasesPreventionandControl,NationalInstituteforCommunicableDiseaseControlandPrevention,ChineseCenterforDiseaseControlandPrevention,Beijing,People'sRepublicofChina;FengtaiCenterforDiseaseControlandPrevention,Beijing,People'sRepublicofChinaStateKeyLaboratoryforInfectiousDiseasesPreventionandControl,NationalInstituteforCommunicableDiseaseControlandPrevention,ChineseCenterforDiseaseControlandPrevention,Beijing,People'sRepublicofChina;ChinaCDCKeyLaboratoryofSurveillanceandEarly-WarningonInfectiousDisease,Beijing,People'sRepublicofChina;ShandongUniversityClimateChangeandHealthCenter,Jinan,People'sRepublicofChinaDepartmentofEpidemiology,WestChinaSchoolofPublicHealth,SichuanUniversity,Chengdu,People'sRepublicofChinaStateKeyLaboratoryforInfectiousDiseasesPreventionandControl,NationalInstituteforCommunicableDiseaseControlandPrevention,ChineseCenterforDiseaseControlandPrevention,Beijing,People'sRepublicofChinaYongchengCenterforDiseaseControlandPrevention,Yongchengrefecture,People'sRepublicofChina
母体文献：2017山东大学气候变化与健康国际学术研讨会论文集
会议名称：2017山东大学气候变化与健康国际学术研讨会
会议时间：2017年9月1日
会议地点：济南
主办单位：山东大学
语种：chi
分类号：
关键词：Malaria Anopheles Weather Geographicinformationsystem Modeling
在线出版日期：2021年3月22日
基金项目：
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