油氢合建站时序性动态风险评估研究

文档摘要：油氢合建站作为新型能源基础设施,在实现传统油品加注和氢燃料运营的过程中面临诸多安全新问题,细致全面的风险评估模型将为油氢合建站安全管理提供重要理论支撑.提出了基于复杂网络分析的油氢合建站时序性动态风险评估模型,并应用于油氢合建站火灾爆炸事故.首先,针对灾害链构建的油氢合建站复杂网络结构特征,绘制事故致因链,探究事故的发生路径和内在致因机制.其次,考虑到不同时段风险发展趋势规律的差异性,引入时序加权平均算子(Time-OrderedWeightedAveraging,TOWA)和时序加权几何平均算子(Time-OrderedWeightedGeometricAveraging,TOWGA),结合季节维度对油氢合建站进行动静态综合评估.该方法能够直观揭示时段差异下,各风险指标对系统整体风险的影响程度,从季节角度为高风险灾害事件的防控提供了一种有益探索.

Abstract：Asanewtypeofenergyinfrastructure,hybridhydrogen-gasolinefuelingstationsfacemanynewsafetyproblemsintheprocessofobtainingtraditionaloilrefillingandhydrogenfueloperation,andadetailedandcomprehensiveriskassessmentmodelisanimportanttheoreticalsupportforthesafetymanagementofhybridhydrogen-gasolinefuelingstations.Inthispaper,weproposedadynamicriskassessmentmodelbasedonacomplexnetworkanalysisofhybridhydrogen-gasolinefuelingstations'temporalsequence,andapplyittothefireandexplosionaccidentofhybridhydrogen-gasolinefuelingstations.Firstly,thecomplexnetworkstructureofhybridhydrogen-gasolinefuelingstationsconstructedbythedisasterchainwascharacterized,andthecausalchainofaccidentswasdrawntoexplorethepathofaccidentsandtheintrinsiccausalmechanism.Secondly,consideringthedifferencesintheriskdevelopmenttrendpatternsindifferentperiods,theTime-OrderedWeightedAveraging(TOWA)andTime-OrderedWeightedGeometricAveraging(TOWGA)operatorswereintroducedtocombinetheseasonaldimensionstoconductadynamicaswellasstaticassessmentofhybridhydrogen-gasolinefuelingstations.Thestaticassessmentshouldfocusondegreecentralityvaluesinthespringperiod,meso-centralityresultsinthesummerperiod,andnear-centralityvaluesintheautumnandwinterperiods.Throughdynamicevaluation,itisdemonstratedthattheresultsareconsistentregardlessofusingTOWA,TOWGA,andTOWA-TOWGA.Specifically,thecombinedassessmentofthethreecausalityanalysesindicatesthatdegreecentralityyieldsthemostfavorableoverallassessmentresult,followedbytheresultsrespectivelywiththeuseofmeso-centralityandproximitycentrality.Therefore,moreattentionshouldbepaidtotheassessmentresultsofdegreecentralityinallaspectsofaccidentprevention.Themethodconstructedinthispapercanintuitivelyrevealthedegreeofinfluenceofeachriskindicatorontheoverallriskofthesystemunderthedifferenceofeachperiod,providingausefulexplorationforthepreventionandcontrolofhigh-riskdisastereventsfromtheseasonalperspectives.

作者：康健  王之兴  王庆梓  王晗  孟祥烜Author：KANGJian  WANGZhixing  WANGQingzi  WANGHan  MENGXiangxuan
作者单位：北京石油化工学院安全工程学院,北京102617
刊名：安全与环境学报 ISTICPKU
Journal：JournalofSafetyandEnvironment
年，卷(期)：2024, 24(6)
分类号：X937
关键词：安全工程  复杂网络  灾害链  时序加权平均算子(TOWA)  时序加权几何平均算子(TOWGA)  动态评价  
Keywords：safetyengineering  complexnetworks  disasterchain  Time-OrderedWeightedAveraging(TOWA)  Time-OrderedWeightedGeometricAveraging(TOWGA)  dynamicassessment  
机标分类号：C931F224X928.7
在线出版日期：2024年7月4日
基金项目：北京石油化工学院交叉科研探索项目油氢合建站时序性动态风险评估研究[
期刊论文]  安全与环境学报--2024, 24(6)康健  王之兴  王庆梓  王晗  孟祥烜油氢合建站作为新型能源基础设施,在实现传统油品加注和氢燃料运营的过程中面临诸多安全新问题,细致全面的风险评估模型将为油氢合建站安全管理提供重要理论支撑.提出了基于复杂网络分析的油氢合建站时序性动态风险评估...参考文献和引证文献
参考文献
引证文献
本文读者也读过
相似文献
相关博文

关键词：安全工程,复杂网络,灾害链,时序加权平均算子(TOWA),时序加权几何平均算子(TOWGA),动态评价,

2024-10-4 02:20 上传 油氢合建站时序性动态风险评估研究.pdf

文件大小:

12.86 MB

下载次数:

60

高速下载